Better AI Models Won't Fix Your Engineering Team — Nicholas Arcolano, Jellyfish

Nicholas Arcolano of Jellyfish uses data from about 50,000 engineers across 447 companies to test what really drives AI coding output. A natural experiment forcing users onto Grok barely moved merged PRs. The analysis breaks throughput into tool, skill use, token consumption, company and team, and individual engineer, finding the individual and organization matter far more than the model.