What are we scaling?

A critical analysis of AI progress, arguing that short AGI timelines are unlikely given the current reliance on pre-baking skills via reinforcement learning. The author contends that true AGI requires on-the-job, continual learning—a capability current models lack. The modest economic impact of AI is presented not as a diffusion lag but as direct evidence of this capability gap. The future of AI will be a gradual, competitive race to solve continual learning, not a sudden takeoff.