Nov 24, 2025

The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline: Epoch AI’s Data-Driven Forecast

Epoch AI researchers discuss the AI landscape, arguing against a bubble due to strong enterprise spending and profitability. They forecast significant economic shifts, including a potential 30% GDP growth with advanced AI and the automation of 10% of current jobs this decade. The summary covers the unlikelihood of a software-only singularity, the reality of data center buildouts (with Anthropic surprisingly in the lead), and why energy 'bottlenecks' are economic trade-offs, not hard limits. Also explored are timelines for AI solving major mathematical problems and why robotics remains primarily a hardware challenge.

Oct 03, 2025

Software is Eating Labor

Alex Rampell of a16z explains how software is evolving from digitizing records to performing labor, shifting the industry's focus from the $300 billion SaaS market to the $13 trillion labor market. This transition, accelerated by AI, is forcing a change in business models from seat-based pricing to outcome-based pricing, creating new opportunities and expanding the total addressable market.

Sep 23, 2025

925: AI, Automation and the Future of Work — with Oxford’s Prof. Carl Benedikt Frey

University of Oxford Professor Carl Benedikt Frey discusses his book "How Progress Ends," exploring the mechanics of innovation in different economic systems, the limitations of generative AI for true discovery, and the profound impact of AI on the future of work, job displacement, and the skills needed to thrive.

Aug 04, 2025

Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith debate the definition of AGI, its economic implications, and timelines. They contrast an economic definition (automating white-collar work) with a cognitive one, exploring why current models lack economic value despite reasoning abilities due to a failure in 'continual learning'. The discussion covers the potential for explosive economic growth versus a collapse in consumer demand, the substitution vs. complementarity of human labor, and the geopolitical shift from population size to inference capacity as the basis of power.