Dec 23, 2025

What are we scaling?

A critical analysis of AI progress, arguing that short AGI timelines are unlikely given the current reliance on pre-baking skills via reinforcement learning. The author contends that true AGI requires on-the-job, continual learning—a capability current models lack. The modest economic impact of AI is presented not as a diffusion lag but as direct evidence of this capability gap. The future of AI will be a gradual, competitive race to solve continual learning, not a sudden takeoff.

Nov 24, 2025

The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline: Epoch AI’s Data-Driven Forecast

Epoch AI researchers discuss the AI landscape, arguing against a bubble due to strong enterprise spending and profitability. They forecast significant economic shifts, including a potential 30% GDP growth with advanced AI and the automation of 10% of current jobs this decade. The summary covers the unlikelihood of a software-only singularity, the reality of data center buildouts (with Anthropic surprisingly in the lead), and why energy 'bottlenecks' are economic trade-offs, not hard limits. Also explored are timelines for AI solving major mathematical problems and why robotics remains primarily a hardware challenge.