Nov 24, 2025

The 2045 Superintelligence Timeline: Epoch AI’s Data-Driven Forecast

Epoch AI researchers discuss the AI landscape, arguing against a bubble due to strong enterprise spending and profitability. They forecast significant economic shifts, including a potential 30% GDP growth with advanced AI and the automation of 10% of current jobs this decade. The summary covers the unlikelihood of a software-only singularity, the reality of data center buildouts (with Anthropic surprisingly in the lead), and why energy 'bottlenecks' are economic trade-offs, not hard limits. Also explored are timelines for AI solving major mathematical problems and why robotics remains primarily a hardware challenge.

Aug 04, 2025

Dwarkesh and Noah Smith on AGI and the Economy

Dwarkesh Patel and Noah Smith debate the definition of AGI, its economic implications, and timelines. They contrast an economic definition (automating white-collar work) with a cognitive one, exploring why current models lack economic value despite reasoning abilities due to a failure in 'continual learning'. The discussion covers the potential for explosive economic growth versus a collapse in consumer demand, the substitution vs. complementarity of human labor, and the geopolitical shift from population size to inference capacity as the basis of power.